Monday - August 17, 2020

Flowers For Algernon?

Funny, I kind of thought it was the President’s job to keep people aware of new possibilities and to give them even temporary hope. But the Left may be right on this one. Like the blind squirrel ...

Most Americans have been praying for a cure to the Chinese Communist Party virus. Such a prospect turns out to be horrifying, however, if you are a Deep State bureaucrat, someone invested in open-ended and lucrative research into unpromising medicines or vaccines and/or a political opponent of President Trump.

Hence the vehemently hostile response of a leftist publication called Axios to information about Oleandrin, a natural supplement that has proven in clinical experiments and limited human trials in Texas to crush the CCP virus. Rather than celebrate this development and call for an urgent effort to validate such findings with widespread, life-saving trials, Axios touted the uninformed criticisms of naysayers determined to snuff further work on this apparent breakthrough.

To the alarm of some government health officials, President Trump has expressed enthusiasm for the Food and Drug Administration to permit an extract from the oleander plant to be marketed as a dietary supplement or, alternatively, approved as a drug to cure COVID-19, despite lack of proof that it works.

Driving the news: The experimental botanical extract, oleandrin, was promoted to Trump during an Oval Office meeting in July. It’s embraced by Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson and MyPillow founder and CEO Mike Lindell, a big Trump backer, who recently took a financial stake in the company that develops the product.

OMG, if Mike Lindell is behind it, you know it’s deathly anathema.

Oleandrin is an extract from the oleander plant. Researchers have suggested that it could be useful to treat cancer because of the way it affects cells, and that it could enhance the effects of other cancer therapies.

Professor Sharon Lewin, the director of the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity at the University of Melbourne, is an international authority on antiviral drugs and has a laboratory working on COVID-19.
Asked about oleandrin’s potential efficacy as a COVID-19 treatment, Lewin told Axios, “Oleandrin looks to have antiviral activity at high doses in a test tube model. You’d certainly want to see more work done on this before even contemplating a human trial.”

A July 2020 study from the University of Texas at Galveston shows, in a laboratory setting, that oleandrin can inhibit the coronavirus in monkey kidney cells. This study has not been peer reviewed and one of the authors of the study, Robert Newman, is chairman of Phoenix Biotechnology’s scientific advisory board — the company developing the oleandrin product.

The bottom line: Scientists around the world are in a race for cures, treatments and vaccines for COVID-19. Government regulators are investigating hundreds of products. When a biotech executive like Whitney can take his case directly to the president, it casts doubt over the scientific rigor of the drug development process.

From the research study:

Using Vero cells, we found that prophylactic oleandrin administration at concentrations down to 0.05 μg/ml exhibited potent antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2, with an 800 fold reduction in virus production, and a 0.1 μg/ml dose resulted in a greater than 3,000-fold reduction in infectious virus production. The EC50values were 11.98ng/ml when virus output was measured at 24 hours post-infection, and 7.07ng/ml measured at 48 hours post-infection. Therapeutic (post-infection) treatment up to 24 hours after infection of Vero cells also reduced viral titers, with the 0.1 μg/ml dose causing greater than 100-foldreductions as measured at 48 hours, and the 0.05 μg/ml dose resulting in a 3578-fold reduction.The potent prophylactic and therapeutic antiviral activities demonstrated here strongly support the further development of oleandrin to reduce the severity of COVID-19 and potentially also to reduce spread by persons diagnosed early after infection.

In years past the FDA has been dinged for major slow walking and foot dragging when it comes to testing and approving new medicines. Many drugs are available to the rest of the world that are not yet available to us. With this pandemic that slowness has become an issue, but I don’t think the best idea is to throw caution to the wind and let anything fly. That way leads to snake oil. There has to be some level of significant proper, fair, testing.

OTOH, the Axios article does mention how this could easily be marketed as an herbal supplement, which could NOT focus on any curative ability. To which there’s an easy work around; “We’re NOT ALLOWED to mention that this cures Covid, and thus cannot recommend a dose of 2 pills a day for 2 weeks. This product is for dietary supplemental use only, and we bear no responsibility for it’s use in any other manner.” kind of advertising.

OTTH, shouldn’t President Trump know by now when to keep his fat mouth shut?

Consumption of even one Nerium oleander leaf can be fatal. Onset of toxicity occurs several hours following consumption. Symptoms include vomiting, abdominal pain, cyanosis, hypotension, hypothermia, vertigo, respiratory paralysis and death.

However, a carefully controlled tea made from the flowers could be an effective cancer and AIDS treatment. But more trials are needed!!

A hot water extract of the plant, known as Anvirzel™, has been developed as a potential treatment for cancer, AIDS, and congestive heart failure. It consists of a mixture of oleandrin and the glycone oleandrigenin. Experiments suggest that a combination of Anvirzel and cisplatin may be more effective than cisplatin monotherapy . In an earlier study, Anvirzel appeared safe in humans when injected intramuscularly, although adverse effects such as injection site pain, fatigue, and other GI symptoms were reported.

Anvirzel™ is not an approved cancer treatment in the United States. Until more data regarding its efficacy and toxicity are available, this product should not be used outside of clinical trials.

Anvirzel may be a modern version of a medicinal extract of oleander that goes back to the dawn of history.

Historical records prove that Oleander plant has healing powers; thus it was highly regarded by the Mesopotamians in the 15th century B.C. During the age of the Babylonians up to the Romans it was used as a relieved for hangovers. To the Arabs it has better worth since the plant was used for cancer medication in the 8th century A.D.

OTOH, the Romans also used it to commit suicide.

I looked up the entry at Wiki ... and I think I’ll pass on this one. There may be too much risk in a cure made from just a little bit of deadly poison.

Posted by Drew458     on 08/17/2020 at 01:06 PM   
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   Monday - August 10, 2020

Gohmert (R-TX) Much Improved

About 9 days ago, Texas Rep Louie Gohmert released the news that he had a ‘rona. And he’d been wearing a mask.

He got on HCQ, with the zinc, with the zithromycin antibiotic, with the B, C, D vitamins. And he got at least one nebulizer treatment, with a steroid (probably budesonide).

And he’s hella better. In just a couple days.

Here he is, talking about it in detail, along with some other things. Like the “Resistance” to HCQ +Zn, because OrangeManBad. And because Big Profit for Big Pharma.

“It’s a legitimate real virus that needs to be taken seriously ... that’s killing people ... I don’t think we can rely very well on the numbers that we’re getting, but no question, it’s legitimate ... “

Gosh, I wish he was my rep. This guy says a lot of the things I say.

Of course, this is yet another of those “merely anecdotal” situations.

I personally believe that a shotgun approach is the key to this damn virus. If each piece can take a nibble out of it, enough pieces might chew up the whole thing.

Know what I’d like to see? An honest trial to test which nebulizer treatment works best. Hydrogen peroxide, budesonide, heparin, or others. All seem to work to some extent. Which one works the best, or the fastest? 

Posted by Drew458     on 08/10/2020 at 12:40 PM   
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   Monday - August 03, 2020

Kung Flu Messing With The Arctic Countries

Hey, I’m trying. But other than the ‘rona, their isn’t much on the news except rioters, kneelers, and BLM extortionists.

So I’ll touch on this lightly, but you can follow the links or search up as much as you want to read. Maybe I can work a Lead Zep pun in here ...

Once around the top of the world, ‘rona ‘rona everywhere ...

•  Murmansk region counts more Covid-19 cases than neighboring Norway or Finland 1 in 75 people there are infected. Hospital conditions are ... totally soviet.


    • Speaking of Soviet conditions ... The new nickle refinery in Monchegorsk dumped such a toxic cloud the other day that the trees are dying. Agent Orange is part of the refining practice? Smog was thick with sulfur dioxide and heavy metals.


•   Iceland going back into lockdown “Iceland on Thursday reinstated restrictions on public gatherings after finding at least two new infection clusters”


•  Greenland doing pretty well so far. Yeah, well, sure. The giant island is mostly covered with glacier, hardly anybody lives there, and they’re just now getting around to re-opening. And there are no cruise ships coming, or much tourism. Interestingly, Greenland is so remote and so sparsely populated that COVID tests have to be flown out to Denmark for processing.


•  Is It The Eskimo’s Turn Now? New mine worker at Baffin Island west of Greenland, shows up with COVID. Here we go! This is the first case in that whole gigantic nearly empty frozen province of northern Canada. The indigenous residents have their own version of lockdown: none of them are working at the mine or coming anywhere near it. The whole place is staffed by “foreigners” right now.


•  Pretty quiet in Nome. Except ... No tourism, not much fishing going on up over in Nome Alaska. However, the COVID is there (465 cases in Alaska) and it’s lurking ... literally by the shipload:

American Seafoods Company is reporting that additional crew members of the American Triumph tested positive for COVID-19 in Unalaska. American Seafoods tested and screened the 119-person crew after six reported COVID-19 symptoms and tested positive. In total, there are 79 newly positive crew members.

We are relocating the crew to Anchorage to isolate and quarantine. American Seafoods will support the crew members however we can, providing quarantine facilities, daily meals, and accessible onsite medical care. We will sanitize the vessel during this time.

Three of American Seafood’s ships have been infected so far, regardless of quarantining, hygiene, or cleaning. Maybe they should put masks on the fish or something.


•  Speaking of shiploads ... Meanwhile back in Norway, the really big news from Way Up North Today: Hurtigruten cruise ship parked after onboard outbreak

Hurtigruten’s Amundsen: no more Svalbard, goes to Tromsø [ I’m visualizing the Muppet’s Swedish Chef doing the news ]

The M/S Roald Amundsen arrived in Tromsø on Friday with two ill and isolated crew members onboard. The two were hospitalized and tested for coronavirus. The rest of the 158-person crew were tested and on Saturday the cruise liner confirmed at least 35 of the crew are infected by the virus.

Crew members who tested positive and are still on the ship, are not sick or have any other symptoms. The passengers disembarked Friday morning before the outbreak was announced.

Local newspaper Nordlys reported Friday evening four crew members have tested positive. All four are hospitalized in Tromsø. Passengers that disembarked in Tromsø told Norwegian media that they first were informed about the outbreak when reading online newspapers. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health all passengers quarantined and tested for COVID-19 and is urging 69 municipalities to follow up on a total of 400 people in some way associated with infected crew members.

The MS Roald Amundsen arrived at Tromsø after a voyage to Svalbard that started July 24 with 177 passengers. The ship is one of very few that have sailed the waters around the Norwegian archipelago this summer. The ship did not dock in any settlements in the Arctic archipelago.

“A preliminary evaluation shows a breakdown in several of our internal procedures,” Chief Executive Daniel Skjeldam said in a statement.

“Our own failure, as well as the recent rise in infections internationally, has led us to halt all expedition cruises in Norwegian and international waters,” he said.

Four crew members on the MS Roald Amundsen were hospitalised on Friday when the ship arrived at the port of Tromsoe, and later diagnosed with the respiratory illness. Tests showed another 32 of the 158 staff were also infected.

Among the infected crew, 32 were from the Philippines while the rest were of Norwegian, French and German nationality.

While foreign crew members were tested for the coronavirus before leaving their home countries, they were not tested in Norway and did not quarantine before starting work on the ship, the company said.

So far, four of the combined 387 passengers travelling on the ship on two separate cruises since July 17 have been found to carry the virus

All 160 crew members on the Roald Amundsen have been quarantined on the ship, while the 177 passengers — all of whom have already disembarked — are being contacted by telephone and are being told to self-isolate, operator Hurtigruten said.

“By the time we were notified, the passengers had left the ship,” Tromsø municipality chief doctor Kathrine Kristoffersen told a news conference. “All passengers will, for the time being, be asked to quarantine.”
...
The ship’s operator and owner, Hurtigruten, which in March suspended most operations due to the pandemic, announced on July 7 it would gradually return all but two of its 16 vessels to service by the end of September, albeit with reduced capacity.

I know the cruise ship industry is trying to survive, but it seems every time a bunch of folks go out in a boat for a few days ... wham. Whether it’s lack of social distancing, the recycled air in the small space that is any size ship, crappy and slow testing, or just a ton of turd worlders working the cruise ships and fishing boats, I don’t have the answer. But you won’t see me on any boat, or any airplane either, for a long long time.

There’s no escape. Even way up north in the big frozen empty, any time a few dozen folks get together - civilization, right? - some of them get the ‘rona. Everyone in the world will get this, has it already, or has had it at least once so far. There’s no vaccine, no quick cure, no officially approved mitigating treatment. Some are immune, some have no symptoms, some few get very sick for a long time, and some of them die. No rhyme or reason, and nowhere to hide. May as well take your chances, roll the dice with God, and get it over with. Meanwhile, go live life to the fullest, if your local authorities allow you to.

Posted by Drew458     on 08/03/2020 at 10:39 AM   
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   Sunday - August 02, 2020

Your Daily Feral

There’s a reason for white flight. I’d create a category for these stories, but the category name would be totally appropriate raycis.

Cross Staples Off Your List. And learn to keep your mouth shut about other people who seem incapable of wearing their masks properly. Especially when there’s a great big plastic wall between you.

HACKENSACK, NJ - The Hackensack Police are asking the public to help them identify a woman who attacked another patron at a Staples store on Hackensack Avenue over a request to wear a face covering, authorities said.

According to police the attack took place shortly before 3:30 p.m. on Wednesday when the victim, a 54-year-old woman who had undergone a liver transplant last spring, asked another patron to wear a face mask when she approached her.

The video shows this sparked the suspect to confront the victim before throwing her to the ground. According to police the suspect became angry at the victim and exchanged words with her before violently throwing the victim to the ground. The video also shows the woman leave the frame and then exit the store. No one in the store intervened or responded to the victim’s cries for help in the video, which you can view below.

Poor reporting yet again. Watch the video, you can see the assaulter did not leave the building at all, and came by the victim again, and then continued shopping (upper screen right). Like the assaulter, nearly all the employees and most of the other customers were black. And they just stood there doing nothing. At this point to me it’s a miracle that they didn’t all join in beating the nearly skeletal woman lying on the floor.

I am so tired of hulking angry black women with hair trigger violent tempers.

Posted by Drew458     on 08/02/2020 at 07:29 AM   
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   Friday - July 31, 2020

Antigen test results wobbly everywhere?

Sorry, last week’s news. And I really wish I could find something else to blog about. (hey we went bowling again last night. Our team did pretty well, I threw a 658 series (no tap league :-( ) but the other team slaughtered us anyway. So after 2 weeks we’re at the bottom of the heap. Oh well.)

Vermont Seeing Antigen Test Irregularities

65 in Manchester tested positive with Quidel’s antigen test, but then 48 of them tested negative with the standard PCR test. Which one is right? Was Quidel given an EUA too early?

65 people who tested positive last week after completing the rapid antigen test offered at a private medical clinic in the heart of Manchester, Vt., a town of fewer than 5,000. News of an outbreak set off alarms in a state that to-date had fared well in the pandemic, registering the second-fewest cases in the country. Many local restaurants and retailers quickly shut down. The Saturday farmers market was canceled. State officials with little information scrambled to answer questions from reporters and the public as to how and where the outbreak began.

But in Vermont, positive antigen tests — a relatively new way of detecting an active COVID infection — require confirmation by another test: a polymerase chain reaction, or PCR, test, the gold-standard used by the government, hospitals, and professional sports teams. Of the 65 people who’d received those positive antigen tests, 48 would ultimately test negative via PCR.

A community on edge was now a community confused. Had there been an outbreak? The state’s health department said no, while the clinic stood by its findings that showed positive test results. The Manchester town Facebook forum erupted with questions about antigen testing, authorized in May by the FDA for emergency use. What to make of this apparent testing stalemate?
Attempts at answering that question proved to be a lesson in the current fractured state of testing in the United States as well as a reminder of how little is still known six months into the pandemic about the coronavirus and the methods used to mitigate its spread.
Antigen testing, which also requires a nasal swab but can return results in just 15 minutes, has been heralded as a cheap and speedy alternative to the cumbersome and pricey PCR tests, which in the United States can take anywhere from a day to two weeks to process. Rather than lugging vials off to a lab where they’re heated, cooled, and spun, antigen test cassettes are inserted into a small on-site machine that quickly reads the results.
But although the antigen test was recently authorized by the Food and Drug Administration, it is not formally approved, meaning only a handful of studies — submitted by the very companies that markets the product — have been completed to verify its reliability.

I have read elsewhere that, while the antigen test may have an unacceptable false positive rate, it has an almost zero false negative rate. Combined with the high speed results, this may make it very useful for surgical patients, all of whom now have to be tested and cleared prior to surgery. This precaution is making for extremely difficult scheduling, and the 10-14 days results time for the PCR test is forcing most of these people to self-isolate. Now add in the requirement that all surgical patients also have to have a physical from their PCP within a month of the surgical date, which is often scheduled at least 6 or 8 weeks ahead of time.

India has been using RAT (rapid antigen testing) quite a bit, and has had problems. It’s a great idea, but it looks like it needs more development. Like anything else in life, you can’t have fast, good, and cheap, but with this, when you’re looking at hundreds of millions of daily tests, 2 out of 3 isn’t good enough.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/coronavirus-antigen-tests-quick-and-cheap-too-often-wrong
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-antigen-test-could-give-quick-results-but-is-not-foolproof

Posted by Drew458     on 07/31/2020 at 03:49 PM   
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COVID Shocker

The United States is about 29 times larger than Vietnam. At 331,210 sq km, Vietnam is a little bigger than New Mexico. Yet the population of the USA is only 3 1/2 times greater; Vietnam has 97 million citizens, compared to around 330 million here.

But Vietnam, which shares a long border with China, has had only 536 cases of the ‘rona since January, and until yesterday, had only had 1 COVID related death. ONE. Now, sadly, today they have 2.

2 deaths, 536 total cases, 8 months, 97 million people. How is this possible?

Vietnam has a much younger population (median age 30.5 vs 38.4). There is almost no obesity; lowest in the world. They are nearly genetically monolithic; everyone is Vietnamese (although they recognize 54 types).  Very very few Poles, Danes, Venezuelans, Nigerians, or even Polynesians live there. Life expectancy 6 years less than ours.  Absolute one party communist rule, but I don’t know how gentle or tyrannical that leadership is.

But when COVID was just beginning, they shut the country down completely. Closed the borders, shut the airports, locked down all the towns and cities. Anyone who seemed to be sick with the virus and anyone they’d been in contact with was taken somewhere and isolated. Full quarantine. Anyone coming home to Vietnam was also quarantined for at least 2 weeks.

And it worked. Until a couple days ago, not one reported fatality. And now that number is up to two. They hadn’t had any new cases in 99 days.

Vietnam’s Health Ministry reported the country’s second Covid-19 death late on Friday.

The 61-year-old man died on Friday afternoon at a hospital in Da Nang city, where Vietnam last week detected its first domestically transmitted coronavirus infections in more than three months, the ministry said in a statement.

The country, which has recorded 546 coronavirus infections since its first cases were detected in January, reported its first coronavirus death earlier on Friday. The 70-year-old man who died had underlying health conditions, state media reported.

More than 53,000 people have been put in quarantine and although data from the country’s mass testing programme has yet not been released, the health ministry said.

[ May 15, 2020 ] Despite a long border with China and a population of 97 million people, Vietnam has recorded only just over 300 cases of Covid-19 on its soil and not a single death.

Nearly a month has passed since its last community transmission and the country is already starting to open up.

Experts say that unlike other countries now seeing infections and deaths on a huge scale, Vietnam saw a small window to act early on and used it fully.

But though cost-effective, its intrusive and labour intensive approach has its drawbacks and experts say it may be too late for most other countries to learn from its success.
‘Extreme but sensible’ measures

“When you’re dealing with these kinds of unknown novel potentially dangerous pathogens, it’s better to overreact,” says Dr Todd Pollack of Harvard’s Partnership for Health Advancement in Vietnam in Hanoi.

Recognising that its medical system would soon become overwhelmed by even mild spread of the virus, Vietnam instead chose prevention early, and on a massive scale.

By early January, before it had any confirmed cases, Vietnam’s government was initiating “drastic action” to prepare for this mysterious new pneumonia which had at that point killed two people in Wuhan.
Image copyright Getty Images

When the first virus case was confirmed on 23 January - a man who had travelled from Wuhan to visit his son in Ho Chi Minh City - Vietnam’s emergency plan was in action.

“It very, very quickly acted in ways which seemed to be quite extreme at the time but were subsequently shown to be rather sensible,” says Prof Guy Thwaites, director of Oxford University Clinical Research Unit (OUCRU) in Ho Chi Minh City, which works with the government on its infectious disease programmes.

Vietnam enacted measures other countries would take months to move on, bringing in travel restrictions, closely monitoring and eventually closing the border with China and increasing health checks at borders and other vulnerable places.

Schools were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of January and remained closed until mid-May. A vast and labour intensive contact tracing operation got under way.

“This is a country that has dealt with a lot of outbreaks in the past,” says Prof Thwaites, from Sars in 2003 to avian influenza in 2010 and large outbreaks of measles and dengue.

So the people are used to deadly epidemics, and maybe there’s some level of viral immunity? How bad were they hit with the similar SARS in 2003?

TAIPEI, TAIWAN - Vietnamese officials are rushing to control a sudden new outbreak of COVID-19 after reporting one of the world’s most successful control efforts earlier in the year.

Authorities in the Southeast Asian country sealed off the central coast tourist city Danang Sunday after two people tested positive for the deadly atypical pneumonia, domestic media reports say. The new spike in and near Danang had grown to 30 cases as of early Wednesday, mostly traced to a local hospital. 

People elsewhere in the economically booming country of 97 million worry that the Danang infections will spread outward and spark another nationwide shutdown like the one ordered for about a month through late April.

“It could be another outbreak, and it’s really sort of scared the Vietnamese, because they thought they’d gotten through it all, but as the rest of the world discovered, this thing spreads much quicker than you think,” said Adam McCarty, chief economist with Mekong Economics in Hanoi. 

While Vietnam’s latest figures still hardly match the hundreds of daily cases still being reported in much of the world, the country prides itself on throttling the disease earlier in the year with no deaths to date. Vietnam had gone without transmission for 99 days through Saturday and its domestic economy roared back to life by May.

Halts to flights and strict quarantine rules have kept the overall caseload to 446 including the latest outbreak. As of Tuesday, 369 people had recovered.

The 1.1 million-population city of Danang quit taking domestic tourists for 14 days, halted many gatherings and shuttered non-essential services such as bars and amusement parks, domestic news website VnExpress International reported.

Flights, buses, taxis, and trains to and from Da Nang are suspended too, business consultancy Dezan Shira & Associates says on its website. Thousands of tourists there now must remain. 

“We’re hoping it doesn’t spread out, because if it does, they’ll do another lockdown, and it’s going to impact business hard,” said Jack Nguyen, partner in the business advisory firm Mazars in Ho Chi Minh City. “I don’t think the country can sustain another lockdown.”

Quang Nam, a province bordering Danang, planned starting Wednesday to close bars, internet shops, cinemas and other spots to stop any disease spread there, the news website reported.

“Danang is done,” Nguyen said. “There are no tourists coming in or out.”

And now that city, if not others as well as needed, are once again on absolute lockdown. Roads closed, tourists stuck in place, fun canceled, nothing open but food and medical. Will it work again?

Interesting note: while they do report that they haven’t had a single new case in 99 days, and that this spike in Danang is 30 cases, the total number of 446 in this article with 369 recovered means 48 people (11%) are still sick with it after 100 days or more.

The other article says 546 cases, so I expect one of those numbers is a typo. 4 and 5 are neighbors on the keyboard.

And for the 99 days without transmission before last week claim to make sense, but 300 cases in mid-May, the assumption is that the case rate was flatlined by the 3rd week in April.

***
While Vietnam has some of the worst malaria on the planet, what they have at this point is largely multi-drug resistant malaria. This means the chloroquine drugs aren’t used so much. Instead they take Malarone, a two drug combo pill made from the potent anti-malarials Atovaquone and Proguanil. Proguanil can be used with chloroquine if the malaria strain isn’t strongly multi-drug resistant. But how to tell? Atovaquone may be effective against SARS COV-2; it seems to work in vitro, so further testing is warranted. Wait and see. But once again, Vietnam is one place where malaria is, and where malaria is, COVID-19 isn’t. 2 deaths and under 600 cases from 97 million people defines “isn’t” to my satisfaction.

Posted by Drew458     on 07/31/2020 at 01:55 PM   
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   Thursday - July 30, 2020

Hernan Cain, Died From COVID

Herman Cain, a former Republican presidential candidate, died at age 74 from COVID-19 complications, a spokesperson confirmed on Thursday.

“Herman Cain — our boss, our friend, like a father to so many of us — has passed away,” Cain’s website editor Dan Calabrese said in a post.

“We knew when he was first hospitalized with COVID-19 that this was going to be a rough fight,” Calabrese said. “He had trouble breathing and was taken to the hospital by ambulance. We all prayed that the initial meds they gave him would get his breathing back to normal, but it became clear pretty quickly that he was in for a battle.”

...

Cain, the former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, was diagnosed with COVID-19 last month and admitted to an Atlanta-area hospital on July 1, 10 days after he attended President Trump’s rally in Tulsa, Okla. It is not known where Cain contracted the disease.

A spokesperson posted on Twitter earlier this week that the businessman and former GOP presidential candidate was undergoing oxygen treatment while still at the hospital.

Five days ago, doctors said Cain would eventually recover but it would be a slow process, Calabrese said, which prompted his team to post the Twitter update.

Cain, who served as co-chair of Black Voices for Trump, had been diagnosed with stage 4 colon cancer in 2006 but had survived the disease.

“Although he was basically pretty healthy in recent years, he was still in a high-risk group because of his history with cancer,” Calabrese said.

...

Cain is the most prominent American politician to succumb to the coronavirus, which has also infected at least nine members of Congress and one governor, though most of those have not shown severe symptoms.

This is sad. I have no other information at all to share on this. Yes, he had terminal colon cancer, but survived it / was in remission for 14 years. And he was 74. And I have no idea how long he was sick before he went to the hospital. Nor do I know what treatment the Atlanta hospital gave him.

Heck, I read about “standard care” in all the other articles, and I have no idea what that means, given that there is no vaccine, no officially approved medicine, and no common adherence to “anecdotal” and “off label” treatments. The only things I’ve heard from the hospitals is to turn the patient face down so they can breathe easier, and that extended intubation is dangerous. So what exactly are hospitals doing for these people?

Posted by Drew458     on 07/30/2020 at 12:26 PM   
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The HCQ Rollercoaster Ride Continues

Texas Congressman Louie Gohmert (R) has the ‘rona and will get HCQ + Zn + Azt

Lawmaker tested positive for COVID-19 during White House screening prior to Trump Texas trip

Rep. Louie Gohmert, R-Texas, told “Hannity” Wednesday that he will soon begin a treatment regimen featuring the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine after testing positive for coronavirus earlier in the day.

“My doctor and I are all in,” Gohmert told host Sean Hannity from quarantine. “And I got a text just before I came on from a dear friend, [a] doctor, who just found out he had it, and he said he started a HCQ [hydroxychloroquine] regimen, too.

“So zinc, erythromycin, and hydroxychloroquine,” the congressman added, “and that will start just in the next day or two.”
...
The eight-term Republican, who has frequently refused to wear a mask while performing his duties, denied reports that he berated staffers who do wear masks in an effort to prevent the spread of the virus.

“I got a tiny little taste of what you and the president get every day,” Gohmert told the host. “The left went nuts.”

Well, given that he has access to the best medical care in the world, I hope he also gets his vitamin levels checked and starts taking prodigious quantities. Hey, maybe a nebulizer with hydrogen peroxide and heparin?

And I also hope that he keeps a daily, or even hourly journal, and Tweets it out (with comments disabled).

And I have no idea why he is going to wait a couple days before beginning treatment. That seems mega-stupid to me.




Ohio bans HCQ distribution at pharmacies

Starting on Thursday, Ohio pharmacies, clinics and other medical facilities will be prohibited from dispensing or selling the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine, to treat the novel coronavirus.

State regulations were updated on Wednesday to reflect the change but also included several caveats, such as if the prescription is for a pet or if it is part of a clinical trial to assess the effectiveness of the drug when used to fight COVID-19.

“No prescription for chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine may be dispensed by a pharmacist or sold at retail by a licensed terminal distributor of dangerous drugs, including prescriptions for patients residing in Ohio dispensed or sold at retail by nonresident terminal distributors of dangerous drugs as defined in rule 4729:5-8-01 of the Administrative Code, unless the prescription bears a written diagnosis code from the prescriber or a statement indicating its veterinary medical purpose,” the state website read.

“Prescriptions issued for chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine for prophylactic use related to COVID-19 or for the treatment of COVID19 are strictly prohibited unless otherwise approved by the board’s executive director in consultation with the board president, at which time a resolution shall issue,” the statement continued. “Upon the effective date of this rule, all previous approvals for the use of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine shall be deemed void and must be approved using the process outlined in this paragraph.”

“Basically, it’s a patient safety issue,” Cameron McNamee, the board’s director of policy and communications told The Columbus Dispatch. “We’re looking at the best science to determine what’s best for the patients of Ohio.” She also said the decision has nothing to do with President Trump’s public support for the treatment. [ OMG I can smell the BS from here ]

In June, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) reportedly revoked emergency authorization for the drug which had been prescribed to treat the coronavirus. However, Trump and others in the medical community have hailed it as a possible cure for COVID-19.

The Ohio edict specifically mentions the FDA’s revoking their HCQ EUA back in June. But running with the deliberate misunderstanding of that action, they fail to mention that what the FDA did was to cancel their edict that federal supplies of HCQ had to be limited only to clinical trial and hospital use. So the FDA DID NOT BAN HCQ. What they did, was to open the door for the rest of us, so that (as if overall supplies were low, yeah right) the giant federal stockpile of the drug could go on the open market for the rest of us to use. This purposeful and continuing lie is one of the more aggravating instances in the HCQ wars, and the entire media, including Fox, is complicit. No need to mention that the studies the decision appeared to be based on were the flawed and fraudulent ones coming out of Europe (RECOVERY et al) that were either revoked for BS, or shown to be using nearly fatal overdose levels of the drug in their “trial”. These studies were also mentioned in the Ohio ruling. So it’s a cascade of bullshit. But not to get Trump, on noes!! Liars.

Meanwhile in Columbus OH ...

On the same day that a new rule prohibiting the selling and prescribing of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine to treat the coronavirus (COVID-19) went into effect, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine called on the state’s pharmacy board to reconsider.

In a statement released by the governor’s office, DeWine said that he believes the decision for treatment should be between a doctor and a patient and asked the Ohio Pharmacy Board to halt the new rule and later revisit it.

If Ohio’s pharmacy board doesn’t instantly rescind this ... and I have to wonder if they even have the right to do such a thing, given past furors over filling birth control and morning after scrips etc, not to mention that they are, or should be, subservient to the FDA, CDC, and the doctors in the medical community at large ... I wonder if veterinarians aren’t about to make a fortune.

It’s already known that cats can get the ‘rona. And many vets are already doing some kind of lockdown office visit thing. Show up for fluffy’s appointment, pop the trunk, they come out and take the cat and carrier, and you chill out in the parking lot. Then they text you when your pet visit is complete, and you pop the trunk remotely. You get billed via credit card via your phone. 

So why not take it a tiny bit further and do virtual office visits? Especially since there is no rule against the prophylactic use of HCQ for felines? Set up a sign at the roadside. “Protect your cat from COVID. Virtual office visits $50, call today.” And when you call, they ask if Fluffy has been exposed or showing signs. No, well, let’s be safe. Now listen carefully: for humans, the dose is 2 HCQ pills a day for a week, with a 1000IU zinc supplement every 6 hours. But for cats, the dosage is just 50mg once a day, and feed them tuna and sardines if they won’t take cat vitamins.

Uh huh, and all the scrips say “for veterinary use only” on them. And nobody will ever dare check.

But as for getting kitty to wear a mask and do social distancing? Good luck with that.

~~~~


Your Daily Fauci Flip Flop

And in other ‘rona ups and downs, “health expert” Anthony Fauci ( Fau Chi, D-China ) now says you should wear googles too. But he says people won’t like that. Social media agrees, somewhat.

“Theoretically you should protect all of the mucosal surfaces [eyes, nose, mouth], so if you have goggles or an eye shield, you should use it,” he said in an interview with ABC News on Instagram Wednesday.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention already recommends wearing a face mask that covers the nose and mouth in public, but the virus can also enter through the eyes.

Fauci recommended goggles in addition to a face mask for those who want “perfect protection” from the COVID-19, but admitted it’s not “universally recommended.”

Posted by Drew458     on 07/30/2020 at 09:10 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseases • Pandemic Pandemonium •  
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   Tuesday - July 28, 2020

Social Media Owns The Truth. And The World.

Hundreds of doctors who have been treating COVID patients got together to discuss what they’ve seen, what they’ve learned, and how media bias and censorship has mangled reality.

BREAKING UPDATE: Total Censorship. Frontline Doctors Website Canceled. LINK:

Frontline doctors from across the US held a “White Coat Summit” on Monday in Washington DC to dispel the misinformation and myths surrounding the coronavirus.

Day two of their summit is going to kickoff today in front of the US Supreme Court.

The doctors are very concerned with the disinformation campaign being played out in the far left American media today.

...

On Monday following their very popular event Twitter, YouTube, Facebook and Google censored the doctors after they promoted hydroxychloroquine as a life-saving medication in treating the coronavirus.

And now Squarespace REMOVED THEIR WEBSITE TODAY!

Tech giants are REFUSING to broadcast an effective treatment for coronavirus promoted by frontline doctors!

You are not allowed to even hear an alternate viewpoint. The First Amendment is almost completely dead.

update to the update: “A new hope”
The conference video and some write ups of what they were saying is in various lesser places online. Here are some links, some of which which have pages that have links to other pages and data sites like Bitchute.
https://ussanews.com/News1/2020/07/28/white-coat-summit-dr-99-8-percent-of-people-get-through-this-without-getting-horribly-sick/
https://thespectator.info/2020/07/28/google-and-youtube-censored-paper-outlining-evidence-of-hcq-treating-covid-19-for-violating-terms-of-service/
https://heavy.com/news/2020/07/america-frontline-doctors-summit/
https://sonsoflibertymedia.com/white-coat-summit-dispels-misinformation-about-covid-19/

And while these are not mainstream websites, at least they’re more common than my little hole in the wall blog. But that’s it in a nutshell; most people won’t ever even see the story about the story. And those few who do - preaching to the choir - probably won’t make the effort to track down alternate avenues. Suppression by laziness, TLDR, and/or lack of tech savvy is just as good as a digital book burning or witch hunt; visiting and believing fringe information sites put you on the fringe, therefore you wear a tinfoil hat, therefore you aren’t worth listening to. And TPTB win again.

OK, back to the original post now:



Breitbart livestreamed their conference and presentations. It was the most popular video event in the world. Facebook pulled the plug on them, quickly followed by YouTube, Twitter, and Google. Because all these highly respected doctors were sharing information that they’d learned in the actual trenches in the war against this virus. So of course they were banned. Who would want the actual truth? That’s merely anecdotal and defies the agenda. Cancel them!!

American life has fallen casualty to a massive disinformation campaign. We can speculate on how this has happened, and why it has continued, but the purpose of the inaugural White Coat Summit is to empower Americans to stop living in fear.

If Americans continue to let so-called experts and media personalities make their decisions, the great American experiment of a Constitutional Republic with Representative Democracy, will cease. 

Facebook has removed a video posted by Breitbart News earlier today, which was the top-performing Facebook post in the world Monday afternoon, of a press conference in D.C. held by the group America’s Frontline Doctors and organized and sponsored by the Tea Party Patriots. The press conference featured Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) and frontline doctors sharing their views and opinions on coronavirus and the medical response to the pandemic. YouTube (which is owned by Google) and Twitter subsequently removed footage of the press conference as well.
Matt Perdie

The video accumulated over 17 million views during the eight hours it was hosted on Facebook, with over 185,000 concurrent viewers.

Because “top men”

“We’ve removed this video for sharing false information about cures and treatments for COVID-19,” a Facebook company spokesman, Andy Stone, told Breitbart News. The company did not specify what portion of the video it ruled to be “false information,” who it consulted to make that ruling, and on what basis it was made.

Because free speech, exchange of information, honest discussion, and respect for highly experienced medical personnel does not fit the agenda. Squash them.

Some of the video is available at the Frontline site, about 3 hours worth. And, OMG OMG OMG!! they support the proper use of HCQ, and have a couple white papers on their site.

But you know they won’t be popular, because they tell it straight up:

The safety of HCQ is irrefutable. The evidence supporting HCQ efficacy against Covid-19 is also overwhelming. All negative HCQ studies have used either: too much, used it alone (it needs Zinc), or used it late (it should be early.) The treatment dose is 200 mg HCQ twice a day for five days + Zinc 50 (elemental) daily. The prophylactic dose is 400 mg HCQ weekly + Zinc 50 (elemental) daily. (There are studies right now to see if HCQ 200 mg. weekly is sufficient.) This is very low dose. (The usual dose of HCQ in Lupus, Rheumatoid Arthritis is 400 mg. daily for years.) There are telemedicine physicians who are aware of the facts and if you are concerned about this, please see one. It is also over the counter in many places in the world including Indonesia and most of South America.

This is the culmination of months-long research from all sources. It explains how Americans have come to be in the grip of fear. All the myths and all the misconceptions about a safe, generic drug that has been FDA approved for 65 years, given to pregnant women, breastfeeding women, children, the elderly and the immune-compromised for years and decades without complication, are finally put in the trash heap where they belong. You will have the indisputable proof that you have been massively lied to, often very intentionally. At first you will first be heartbroken. And then you will be furious. Good. Because then you will demand change.

There is a push going on to make HCQ OTC [ over the counter - no prescription needed ] in the USA, as it is in many other parts of the world. It’s not like we don’t have tens of millions of the pills sitting around, and being a simple to make generic drug, any pill factory could churn these things out by the millions more.

I have not found a transcript of their presentation, or a synopsis. So if you want to know a bit about what went on, you can catch the video at the Frontline web site. That’s it, so far.

[ small updates: Twitter suspended Donald Trump Jr’s account because he posted a link to the video. So even secondary references are getting censored.

And the cytokine storm of coordinated media condemnation and denial goes into hyperdrive.]

Meanwhile, take your B, C, D vitamins, and get your zinc levels nice and robust. Get some fresh air and sun, eat healthy, and try and ignore the news, because stress is bad for your immune system.

There are some sound problems with the video, but it’s mostly OK. The above screencap shows the 5 ways that HCQ + Zn fights the virus ... and the next presentation shows that most of this was known 15 years ago, including the proper dosages. Which means all these big studies were purposely flawed, either by massive, nearly fatal doses, or by deliberately ignoring the zinc aspect, or by not giving the medication at the early stages when it would do the most good. That’s undeniable. We’ve been played. 

Posted by Drew458     on 07/28/2020 at 08:47 AM   
Filed Under: • Computers and Cyberspace • Democrats-Liberals-Moonbat Leftists • FREEDOM • Media-Bias • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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   Thursday - July 23, 2020

Take your vitamins

Once more into the breech.

Boost your immune system, don’t catch the damn COVID in the first place.

So many of these patients with the comorbidities have very low levels of essential nutrients that keep your immune system working.

Eat lots of grapefruit. It stopped the Spanish Flu, it could stop the COVID.

Different doctors experimented with different methods of treatment, some more novel than others. One doctor in Chicago had under his care 600 patients treating with a mixture primarily comprising grapefruit. Every one survived save for his son, who, ironically, defied his father’s orders and came out of bed so as to tend to his burgeoning undertaking business.

Clearly, grapefruit — rich in vitamin C, a great antioxidant, along with its carotenoid and limonoid components, phytonutrients — boosted bodies and immune systems against the deadly flu of 1918-9.

Get outside in the fresh air and sunshine. This same “open air treatment” worked with the 1918 flu, and was the entire basis of the tuberculosis retreats. It worked for jaundice and rickets too. Sunshine on your skin causes your body to make vitamin D.

It also turns out that some of the UV you get exposed to stimulates the immune system. So much so, that for many years a form of blood irradiation with UV was used to great effect, only fading into obscurity once penicillin showed up. See The Cure That Time Forgot. While this sounds pretty scary, it’s an example of “hormesis”; a little of it does the most good. This is a fascinating long read if you find medicine interesting.

Strong levels of vitamins B1, C, D, zinc, and magnesium can help. Gargle and nasal rinse with hydrogen peroxide. And of course, wash your hands constantly, wear a mask, and keep up that social distancing. All of which worked in 1918.

Read more here on other treatments and preventatives that are highly effective but get no media coverage at all.



~~~~

All of this explains why I haven’t been blogging much the last few days.

I’ve been reading, studying, and chasing down things online. And this is totally my brother’s fault, mentioning to me last weekend that a large number of people who died in the 1918 pandemic did so because of aspirin. Say what??

TRUE !! Aspirin was new then, and people took it by the handful. Aspirin leaches your body of vitamin C and the nearly fatal doses they took caused the worst effects of scurvy to quickly occur: they bled to death internally.

Even if you ate loads of citrus (vitamin C wasn’t even known about for the next 5 or so years) the extreme levels of aspirin shut down the effectiveness of your white blood cells; if anyone was able to measure your blood levels for C, it would be normal but you’d still get sicker. So don’t take too many aspirins either.

The above link is to a long, rather shocking article, but Dr. Karen Starko’s original paper is even moreso, but is much shorter to read.

In summary, just before the 1918 death spike, aspirin was recommended in regimens now known to be potentially toxic and to cause pulmonary edema and may therefore have contributed to overall pandemic mortality and several of its mysteries. Young adult mortality may be explained by willingness to use the new, recommended therapy and the presence of youth in regimented treatment settings (military).

Posted by Drew458     on 07/23/2020 at 10:43 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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   Tuesday - July 21, 2020

For Better AND Worse

At This Point, I’m Just Throwing Up My Hands (Don’t Shoot!!), SMH, And Walking Away

The current CDC nucleic acid test kits for SARS-CoV-2 generate 30% false-positive and 20% false-negative results in the best state public health laboratory, Dr. Sin Hang Lee reported in a peer-reviewed article published in the International Journal of Geriatrics and Rehabilitation, an online journal based in Japan, on July 17, 2020.

Sin Hang Lee, MD, director of Milford Molecular Diagnostics Laboratory, the author of the article, re-tested 20 reference samples provided by the Connecticut State Department of Public Health Microbiology Laboratory Division to arrive at this conclusion, according to the published article. These reference samples were tested by the State Microbiology Laboratory with the CDC test kit and used as the standard reference to guide local laboratories to develop their own tests for SARS-CoV-2 in clinical specimens from suspected COVID-19 patients, according to the published article titled “Testing for SARS-CoV-2 in cellular components by routine nested RT-PCR followed by DNA sequencing.”

Dr. Lee is the first scientist developing a protocol to test the cellular components, instead of the cell-free fluid sample of a swab rinse, for SARS-CoV-2 genomic RNA.

1. Is Dr. Lee trashing the “gold standard” test used around the world in order to corner the market for his own upcoming cellular test so he can make billions? 

OR

2. Is the “gold standard” test just rough crap, and has been since the beginning? WTH, it was designed by the CDC, who can’t seem to do much of anything properly. We’ve already seen that the antibody tests aren’t useful for much of anything at this point. We did see several random bulk public uses of them that implied the infection rate was a helluva lot larger than was thought though.

BUT MAYBE

3. His testing sample is stupidly small. Run your research with 1,000 or 100,000 or 10,000,000 samples and we’ll listen harder. With just 20 samples, you fall in the “merely anecdotal” category.

While some may think that a 30% false positive rate is awesome, because it shows that the number of actual positives is far lower than reported, you can’t ignore the false negatives.

And if the overall testing effort is returning anything less than a 40% positive test rate, this mean that the adjusted number of cases is more than you thought it was.

When the percentage of positive results is fairly low, then using a test with a “30/20” error factor gives you a TON more actual cases.


Example:

1000 people are tested
100 tests come back positive ... therefore ...
900 tests come back negative

If the test has a 30% positive error rate, then take away 30% of those 100 positives. This leaves you with 70. Awesome!!
If the test has a 20% negative error rate, then 20% of those people are actually infected. So add in 20% of those 900. That’s 180.

Now add 70 and 180, and you get 250. That’s 2.5X as bad as you thought it was. Ruh Roh!!

As the rate of positive results goes down, the overall multiplier goes up. Inverse proportional.
At 8% positive testing, the error rate is 3X. At 9% it’s 2.7X. At 13.34% it’s 2X.




According to the CDC today, the USA is currently showing a 7.867% positive test rate, giving us 3,819,139 cases. If the PCR test does have that 30/20 issue, then 7.867% has an net error rate of 3.04X, which means the actual number of infected people is 11.6 million, not 3.8 million.

On the other hand, the number of people hospitalized, in ICU, intubated and dead (regardless of how you count the dead) has not changed. Shitloads more cases, same number of dead. This means the virus is not even a third as fatal as we’ve been told.

Whether this report is valid or not, I can’t say. I have read before that doctors are throwing around a “70% accurate” concept for this PCR test, which is kind of the same thing, so maybe it is valid. Whether this is by design or by hurried development, I can’t say.

~~~~~~~~



RELATED: CDC says infection rate much higher than realized

< a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-21/coronavirus-infections-far-exceed-reported-cases-cdc-estimates"Far more people were infected with the novel coronavirus than previously reported in several corners of the U.S., according to data released Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The agency conducted a survey looking at antibodies to the virus in 10 U.S. regions. It found prevalence was highly variable from one region to the next, but far higher than the reported number of cases across the board. The presence of antibodies in the blood is evidence that a person’s body had mounted an immune response to the coronavirus.

Yeah, but only recent immune response. Antibodies don’t stick around, but the cells in your body somehow remember, and can create new antibodies if the infectious agent shows up again. With several million things to get sick from out there, if all the antibodies stuck around forever, your blood would be thicker than asphalt.

And this from the CDC is based on the antibody test, which is only known to be ... not precise enough.

Bottom line: nobody really knows a damn thing about how many people actually have or have had this crap. And none of us on the outside can trust the death numbers. And nobody anywhere can really trust any of the tests. But wear your worthless mask and keep your business shuttered, because THAT helps.

Riiight.

Posted by Drew458     on 07/21/2020 at 04:49 PM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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   Saturday - July 18, 2020

Florida Can’t Count Right, As Usual

Florida messing with the COVID numbers. Who wants to be that their counting philosophy comes to them straight from Fauci and the CDC, and is used by most states?

Floriduh Still Can’t Count. Maybe They Should Get Chad To Help.

Guy gets killed in a motorcycle accident. FL tests the body, finds COVID. Therefore this is a COVID death. This is nothing new, but I’m glad Fox35 in Florida has the guts to bring this stuff to the front page.

An individual who was killed in a fatal motorcycle crash in Florida was recently listed as a COVID-19 death for the Sunshine State, according to a state health official.

The truth about the death was brought to light after FOX 35 News asked Orange County Health Officer Dr. Raul Pino whether the two individuals in their 20s who were listed as coronavirus deaths had any underlying conditions.

“The first one didn’t have any,” Pino said. “He died in a motorcycle accident.”

Fox35 asks more queations, and finally gets an answer from the state ...

In an effort to clarify how a COVID-19 death is counted, a statement was sent to FOX 35 News from the Florida Department of Health earlier this week. The statement said a “COVID death” is determined if

…COVID19 is listed as the immediate or underlying cause of death, or listed as one of the significant conditions contributing to death. Or, if there is a confirmed COVID-19 infection from a lab test – and the cause of death doesn’t meet exclusion criteria – like trauma, suicide, homicide, overdose, motor-vehicle accident, etc.

There it is in black and white. If you die FOR ANY REASON, and the test on your body comes back positive, then you’re a new case and a new death. Because money.

As I commented at Vilmar’s (where I stole this post from):
Reaching for straws, because they come wrapped in money. Bonus money for the hospitals, and federal funds for the states. Want to watch the numbers drop like a stone? Take away the financial incentives. Badda-bing, it would be over, overnight.

Posted by Drew458     on 07/18/2020 at 09:35 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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   Tuesday - July 14, 2020

Lies, Damn Lies, And Statistics

“New to us” is not the same as “new”. There can be quite a bit of lag time in collecting the COVID death data because it comes from so many sources. It looks like the CDC is taking recently received death data from some weeks ago and adding it to their “new” death count, instead of adjusting the old numbers. This creates an artificial, misleading spike, or at least amplifies any recent spike considerably.

Twitter user Kyle Lamb put together a chart showing the number of deaths reported by the Coronavirus Tracking Project linked to the China coronavirus.
The results of his work show that the CTP is adding deaths each week from prior periods that make the current period death totals appear greater than they really are and some of these additions are very suspect.
The number of deaths reported publicly come from the Covid Tracking Project.
...
In a typical mortality table you should see a few deaths being reported in week one and many more in the following few weeks but then the number of deaths reported that occurred during a specific week decrease as time goes by.  After a few weeks this lag in reporting diminishes and eventually all deaths are reported.  This is typical in the insurance industry where the industry accounts for deaths being reported on a consistent rate over time with very few claims reported after a few months from the date of event (i.e. the date someone died).  This may seem morbid to those not in the insurance industry but this is how it is done.  Rarely are there jumps in reporting in prior periods unless something odd is going on (e.g. fraud).

What Kyle Lamb shows in his analysis is that the CDC is reporting deaths on a weekly basis.  Many of the deaths are reported in the first few weeks after the death occurred

Another individual took the data from the CDC used by Kyle Lamb and created a chart showing anomalies in CDC reporting.  During this past week, the number of deaths reported included deaths from April which were suddenly reported this week.

Data reported by the CDC indicates that the China coronavirus reached its peak in mortality in April.  The number deaths reported this past week included thousands of deaths from April.  The CDC doesn’t share that the deaths reported in a given week include deaths from months ago.

There are several other charts at the link, but unless you’re a spreadsheet wizard they are difficult to understand. While there may be some kind of death spike going on right now, tacking on old numbers that you just got hold of as if they were new numbers is disingenuous. The CDC should know better. Doing it this wrong way smells like politics.

Posted by Drew458     on 07/14/2020 at 09:33 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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   Thursday - July 09, 2020

A Rare Gem In Pandora’s Box o’COVID

Alas, it has now been repressed.

Warren County is the next county to the north of us. With 109,000 residents in 360 square miles, they’re about 20% smaller than us with about 20% fewer people. They’re also at least as Red Corner as we are, maybe more.

Their COVID updates are through a document, instead of the interactive dashboard our county uses. But it’s a well written document that explains things, instead of just dumping numbers and putting up graphs. They are not stoking the hysteria. Well done.

I read the local and state news sites, and the comments, nearly every day to try and stay abreast of this pandemic situation. While Warren County has been hit a bit harder than we have here in Hunterdon, they are also in the small group of least affected counties in the state. But those comments I read ... OMG, reading comments online can be torture ... so many people having a hissy fit because “they” are hiding the truth, hiding the good data, everything is politics, Murphy sucks, Trump sucks, you suck. Oy. But a big complaint is that “nobody” is putting out anything on how many people have recovered. Another is that the LTC data is hard to get locally, and misleading. I reply to a lot of these comments, and I’ve seen that my concept of active public cases has been picked up by several other folks.

But I didn’t know until yesterday that any county was actually publishing data that supported my idea. Warren has been. But now the state, NJDOH, has squashed recovery data. No longer going to look into it. Interesting, given that NJ has about 40% more contact tracers than needed. So instead of complaining, I politely asked why. You really do catch more flies with honey than vinegar.

Dear Warren County Public Information Department:

I read in the latest copy of the Warren COVID-19 weekly report that NJDOH ended recovery tracking on July 6.

With the latest spikes in the top of the state news, why was this done? I have read elsewhere that NJ has at least 1,000 more contract tracers than minimally required, which allows them to get the job done quickly. So insufficient staff can’t be the reason.

I think the COVID report put out by Warren County is excellent and informative. It may not be as high tech as Hunterdon’s interactive dashboard, but it provides clearly written explanations for the data presented. so it isn’t just numbers and graphs.

It also provides data analysis that few other counties have done, such as segregating the LTCF data from the rest of it. The patient recovery data is almost unique and is very reassuring.  Being able to subtract “restricted access” case numbers (LTCF and prison inmates) and recovered patient numbers from the overall cumulative case numbers is illuminating.  With these two data sets and the death numbers any person can quickly estimate how many active cases there are in public in the county. This goes a very long way towards calming the hysteria and giving the residents a more realistic awareness of the local situation. So why stop the recovery tracking, and the publication of that data? The sensible among us realize that masks and social distancing are going to be with us for quite some time, even long after the daily numbers approach zero.

Obviously Warren County has not been unique in making the effort to acquire patient recovery data, or else NJDOH wouldn’t have stopped this practice statewide. But Warren is the only county I’m aware of that has published this information and I think the lack of it going forward will not benefit the members of the public who have tried to stay well informed about this pandemic in their area.

I looked for information about this new practice at the NJDOH site but could find no mention of it, or the new software package being used by the contact tracers.

I got a response in under an hour. My query has been forwarded, and if they don’t respond in a couple days here’s a number you can call. And thanks for actually thinking ...

Again, thank you. It’s nice to hear from someone who reads beyond a photo and headline. Best wishes, and have a nice day.

The new case rate in Warren has fallen so much that they decided several weeks ago that it was no longer worth updating their documents daily, and switched over to weekly. Why spend the labor money for nothing? And they also publish the recovered numbers right on the main page of the county site, broken down into every township. Unfortunately they don’t list the deaths that way, like Hunterdon does.  And you still have to hit the state dashboard if you want the nursing home specific LTC numbers which have been God awful in Warren.

I think “self reported recovery” data is better than my 6 week approximation algorithm, or at least as good and rather more factual than hypothetical. I wish this were done everywhere. Because active public is the only number we need to know.

Cumulative cases for some area (with or without probables) minus “restricted access” cases (LTC and inmates) minus deaths not in LTC minus recovered. Adjust recovered by the fraction of cumulative cases not in LTC

Or more simply: Cumulative cases minus deaths minus recoveries. This works if you don’t have lots of nursing homes or prisons.

In Hunterdon today, that’s about 55 people; active public cases.
In Warren today, that’s about 74 people; active public cases.

So 129 active public cases from two county combined population of 225,000 people, in almost exactly 800 square miles. 1 per 1,744 folks you might run across in a store. A hair over 2 per square mile. Assuming they aren’t self isolating at all.

Yeah, it’s nearly over, all over over here.

But if you knew that, you might not wear your mask in public or practice excessive social distancing, or hide in your basement in terror. Now be a good sheep and behave.

Posted by Drew458     on 07/09/2020 at 12:24 PM   
Filed Under: • Government • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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Not that very many people ever read this far down, but this blog was the creation of Allan Kelly and his friend Vilmar. Vilmar moved on to his own blog some time ago, and Allan ran this place alone until his sudden and unexpected death partway through 2006. We all miss him. A lot. Even though he is gone this site will always still be more than a little bit his. We who are left to carry on the BMEWS tradition owe him a great debt of gratitude, and we hope to be able to pay that back by following his last advice to us all:

1. Keep a firm grasp of Right and Wrong
2. Stay involved with government on every level and don't let those bastards get away with a thing
3. Use every legal means to defend yourself in the event of real internal trouble, and, most importantly:
4. Keep talking to each other, whether here or elsewhere

It's been a long strange trip without you Skipper, but thanks for pointing us in the right direction and giving us a swift kick in the behind to get us going. Keep lookin' down on us, will ya? Thanks.

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